Up on the LOOG mainpage, Elias Isquith asks “Is Mitt Romney the luckiest guy in the country?”
Well, Romney’s been the frontrunner since 2009 [if not 1968], so all this is really no surprise. Texas Gov. Rick Perry was the wild card, but it wasn’t even certain he’d get in: good record and exp on paper, but few had even heard him speak. And when he did, even before the debates, it was like, ewwww! His best day as a candidate was his first, and that was that.
We also forget that it was Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels who was the shoe-in: not much to look at, but a popular and successful 2-term governor, moderate enough for the general, articulate as hell, and according to even The New York Times, “a fiscally focused, budget-cutting, pragmatic-thinking conservative.”
But as we see from the Cain thing [and we’ve always suspected there was something in 1992 Dem shoe-in Mario Cuomo’s closet as well, haven’t we?], Daniels made the right decision to keep his family’s troubles away from the public enema. [If you haven’t heard that sad sad story, well, that’s exactly why and because Daniels didn’t run.]
[Look for him as VP, though; it’s been a custom to go easier on VP candidates.]
Newt still has a snowball’s chance, if the GOP would rather go down in a blaze of glory than nominate and lose with a passionless technocrat instead. Newt Gingrich would dismantle Barack Obama in debate, although I doubt that even so, he could not overcome the poisoned well that is his past [most, but not all his own fault] to win the general election.
[Then again, it would be nigh impossible to have calculated the constellation of forces that put the even more unappetizing Dick Nixon into the White House in 1968. I still marvel at that one, even knowing what we know now.]
Mr. Isquith further muses that Barack Obama might be the luckiest guy in the country, to face such pale opposition. I think he’s probably right, but for different reasons:
What were the odds that long-buried evidence of a domestic abuse incident would surface and fell his shoe-in Democratic primary opponent in 2004?
What were the odds that long-buried evidence of a marital sex scandal would fell his shoe-in Republican opponent in 2004 too, all enabling a successful presidential run a scant 4 years later?
And now, the GOP’s Only Black Guy tripped up in much the same fashion? No, he wasn’t getting the nomination, but either as a VP, a campaign soldier or merely as a beard against the GOP/racism slime, Herman Cain is an asset to the Republican Party.
Or at least, Herman Cain was an asset to the Republican Party: not no more, he ain’t. A one-way ticket to Palookaville now, and a drag on the GOP. If they bail on him, they’re the Mandingo racists they always were, threatened by “black sexuality.” If they do get his back, they’re just tribalist partisan robot idiots.
The Cain Factor has been zeroed out, and worse: the GOP is screwed coming or going. If not for the presidency itself, Herman Cain was a contender for the Republican Party, he could have been somebody. Instead of a bum, which let’s face it, he now is.
Barack Obama remains lucky—it just boggles the mind, the coincidences and all. Fate. Kismet. Or…?
Dude, I seriously love your writing style.
Dammit, Kelly, knock it off. Don’t make me say I wish I’d written that, or I couldn’t have written that, re a couple of yr recent pieces. It’s just not fair.
Well it is an excellent writing voice. Plus the giant sunglasses bring out the highlights in your goatee.
Quick note – by shoe-in, did you mean Ryan was easily going to beat Obama in ’04 or was he going to easily be the nominee in ’04? Because even if Ryan hadn’t become front-page news for his sexual escapades, Obama still would’ve beaten him fairly easy. Maybe 57-43 instead of 70-30 or whatever the final Keyes percentage was, but Obama was going to be Senator and he was still going to be the keynote speaker at the DNC that year.
Now, maybe a closer race means all sorts of things in the next four years so he doesn’t run or doesn’t become the nominee, but I don’t think Jack Ryan being the Republican nominee means Barack Obama is still a state legislator in Springfield, Illinois at this time.
I sort of agree with this. Ryan was a reasonable contender, but even with a very conservative downstate, Illinois is a Democrat’s to lose.
Perhaps. BHO’s 2004 Dem primary is even more interesting; I didn’t know that part how Hull (D) got sex-slimed too, did you?
What a coincidence. Defies the odds, even. Astronomically. Now Herman Cain. BHO is one lucky fella. that’s fersure.
You don’t have to go back too far to find an interesting alternate history. “Peter Fitzgerald” is an interesting Google.
Everyone and his uncle does oppo on everyone and all their uncles. That’s the game. The dirt on Cain could have come from anywhere, and there was clearly an active volcano of pressurized slime waiting to erupt as soon as anyone managed to scratch the top layer off of Cain’s veneer. Moreover, Obama had the least incentive of all current presidential contenders to be the one to try to make that scratch at this time (though by all means his people have been doing oppo on Cain all this while, as they have been on everyone and all their uncles, and everyone and his uncle have been).
As to the path to his Senate seat, yeah, Obama was lucky. But that’s clearly not what you are actually saying.
Not so clear, Mr. Drew. Altho I tip my hat to anyone who wins at the game that has no rules. I can admire cleverness, on its level.
Okay. Clear or not, that’s not what you are actually saying.
Just to be sure there Jesse was the predecessor to Obama a red or a blue?
The predecessor to Obama was a Republican, but he was a Republican who was unpopular within the Illinois GOP because he wasn’t dysfunctional like they were becoming at the time.
Also, this same Republican barely beat Carol Moseley Braun in ’98 despite it being common knowledge that she was likely corrupt as hell.
Yes, Republican’s can win in Illinois. But not in 2004, not against Obama, and especially somebody like Ryan who was a doctraine conservative with no maverick tendencies. That’s not even getting into the fact Ryan would be depending on the help of an Illinois Republican Party that turned around and _chose_ Alan Keyes as a replacement for Ryan.
“it being common knowledge that she was likely corrupt as hell.”
The AP Style manual edits out “corrupt Illinois politician” as being redundant
I want a “Romney In ’68” shirt.
*Post updated to reflect JB’s brillianceness here.*
You’ve been brainwashed.
You’re all wrong. The Newt tsunami is just getting churning. He is absolutely, inarguably, the best and brightest of the Conservative flock and will handily clean the clocks of his opponents.
You haven’t seen Newtie turn on his considerable charm and duende. He’s got it and the others don’t. If you really think his marital problems are going to eventually swamp his campaign, then you have no real insight into what the folks really care about. He will absolutely, utterly fillet and dismember Obama. He is unquestionably the brightest and most articulate of the whole bunch, Dems or Pubs. I’m not sure if it’s even possible for the intelligentsia at the League to actually sit down and listen to what this man says. You’ve been spoon-fed Krugman and so many other bomb throwing Lefties for so long, dismissing Gingrich has become merely an automatic reflex. PLEASE, I beg of you, try and listen to his words–you will NOT be disappointed or let down. He’s the real deal.
Hey JB, how about I throw in a ’68 Rambler with the ’68 T-shirt!
Great post. (Well, except for the Coulter link there at the end, which has caused me to break out in itchy, itchy hives.)
Yeah, Mitt ain’t the only lucky one. Even those of us who still mostly like the POTUS have to admit he had a remarkable string of luck in the run-up to his election.
Thx, Russell. I did bury the Coulter as deep as possible: I know her effect on folks. I get the same with Ezra Klein and Excitable Andy, and they’re quoted baldly.
You’re so sure that Romney or Gingrich is doomed? I mean, if there ever was a time when the incumbent could win despite 9% unemployment, this may be it, but the economy is still going to be a hell of a millstone around Obama’s neck.
Especially if the GOP candidate can distance himself from the Republicans in Congress. A passionless technocrat may be just the thing for the general election, if people associate the firebrands with those playing politics with the economy. I certainly wouldn’t be betting the rent money on Obama at this point.