Funny Name, Serious Numbers

I keep telling you Loyal Readers, Rudy can win.

Fresh results from Quinnipiac University’s Polling Institute indicating that Giuliani would beat Clinton in two of three key swing states confirm this: Rudy takes Florida by 5 points, Pennsylvania by 11 points, with a convincing 51% of the vote, and loses Ohio by only 1 point. He does even better against Barack Obama and absolutely crushes John Edwards. John McCain ties Clinton in Florida, loses Ohio by 3, and wins Pennsylvania by 6. Mitt Romney does… um… not so good, not winning a single matchup against any of the Democratic contenders.

That’s probably why Intrade’s political futures market looks like this today:




Hillary Clinton



Rudy Giuliani



Barack Obama



John McCain



Al Gore



Mitt Romney



John Edwards



These are the asking prices for $100 contracts – pay $40.10 for a Giuliani nomination contract, and if he winds up getting the nomination, you’ll be paid $100. As you can see, the collective wisdom of the market of people betting real money on these propositions favors Clinton and Giuliani to be their respective parties’ nominees (by comfortable margins, natch) and only gives Clinton a slight-to-moderate edge over Giuliani in the general election.

And odd indeed that there continues to be an active market for Al Gore – is this the result of an active community of true Gore believers still unwilling to let go of the 2000 election, or is there really something to a Gore candidacy – despite the lack of any indication that he’s interested in trying for the job again? If I had to guess, I’d say it’s the Greater Fool Theory in action.

Sure, like Glenn Reynolds says, it’s early yet. But what this should tell you is that Rudy can win. It’s a close call for McCain and a long shot for Romney. Rudy’s the best bet the GOP has going. If George W. Bush was supposed to be the nominee in 2000 based on nothing more than his ultimate electability, then the easy call for Republicans is indeed for Rudy Giuliani.

Burt Likko

Pseudonymous Portlander. Homebrewer. Atheist. Recovering litigator. Recovering Republican. Recovering Catholic. Recovering divorcé. Recovering Former Editor-in-Chief of Ordinary Times. House Likko's Words: Scite Verum. Colite Iusticia. Vivere Con Gaudium.