Alex Knapp is running a multi-part series on the likelihood of the Singularity (riffing off this Charles Stross post). He kicks things off with a discussion of AI:
What computers are smart at are brute-force calculations and memory retrieval. They’re not nearly as good at pattern recognition or the ability to parse meaning and ambiguity, nor are they good at learning. To continue with the subject of gaming, it’s worth noting that when it comes to games that are tougher to solve mathematically, computers aren’t as good as humans. And when it comes to strategy games, such as Starcraft 2 or the Civilization games, long-time gamers know that the computer AI doesn’t beat humans by being smarter–they beat humans by cheating: the program allows the AI, at higher levels, to do things faster than it allows the human players to. In essence, it handicaps the humans by forcing them to operate under less advantageous rules.
Now, I don’t doubt that computers are going to get better and smarter in the coming decades. But there are more than a few limitations on human-level AI, not the least of which are the actual physical limitations coming with the end of Moore’s Law and the simple fact that, in the realm of science, we’re only just beginning to understand what intelligence, consciousness, and sentience even are, and that’s going to be a fundamental limitation on artificial intelligence for a long time to come. Personally, I think that’s going to be the case for centuries.
I’m a Singularity agnostic, but I do think we – as a species – are really bad at predicting how fast technology will advance. In any case, centuries really isn’t that long in the big scheme of things.
The author doesn’t seem to know his subject very well.
What about Watson – the IBM super computer that has just beat the World’s top ‘Jeopardy’ players? A game that requires factual intelligence, wit, the use of nuances and an understanding of humour – a computer already does it better.
Ten years ago a super computer filled a room and weighed the same as seventeen elephants – now it fits into a laptop.
We can only imagine how the likes of Watson will progress in the next ten years, but for now he’s working as a medical consultant (true).
I addressed Watson in the post, you’ll note. But I’ll be more blunt here than I was there. Watson is just a search engine with a neat paint job.
A search engine with a ‘neat paint job’ Watson may be but your Singularity is going to have its roots somewhere and Watson is as good as any.
I don’t remember who it was that said true AI would be born out of google. Lol.
Your thoughts on how we as a species are bad at predicting how technology will advance its interesting, considering that mathematically things are advancing much quicker than anticipated…