Here’s The Prediction

It seems to be the thing that every blogger is doing tonight, predicting what the outcome of the election tomorrow will be. So here’s mine — as optimistic for McCain as I can reasonably forecast. My prediction map shows an electoral vote of 353 for Obama-Biden and 185 for McCain-Palin. In the popular vote, I call it almost exactly a 5% advantage for Obama when all the votes are finally counted. We won’t know for sure for a few days.

Burt Likko

Pseudonymous Portlander. Homebrewer. Atheist. Recovering litigator. Recovering Republican. Recovering Catholic. Recovering divorcé. Recovering Former Editor-in-Chief of Ordinary Times. House Likko's Words: Scite Verum. Colite Iusticia. Vivere Con Gaudium.


  1. Your state picks are the same as but your electoral votes are off from theirs.Have you seen that site where people buy shares in stock which then payout based on events like this? The stock on Prop 8 passing is down so that looks good. NPR did a story on this company and I’ve read some cool studies how these markets are dang good predictors.

  2. Intrade is pretty cool and I consult it from time to time.There is a difference, at least as of this morning: I’ve predicted Missouri will go to Obama. Intrade’s parimutuel consensus has predicted Obama will win Missouri. Thus, there is an 11-point difference between Intrade’s projection and my SWAG.

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