Two Month Update

At the end of December, I made sixteen predictions for 2009. Here’s how I’m doing so far:

Prediction Status
The United States Federal deficit for calendar year 2009 will exceed $1.5 trillion. I may have been too modest in this prediction.
A human being will be cloned. Not that I know of yet.
There will be serious attempts at coups in two of the following: Morocco, Boliva, Colombia, Ethiopia, or Pakistan. Fortunately, I’m wrong so far on all of these.
GDP for the United States will decline for at least three of the four quarters in CY 2009. On track. Not that I’m happy about being right.
California will endure a shutdown of all non-essential state government functions, and then increase state taxes. Half right. Taxes increased substantially, but a shutdown of the state government was averted at the last minute.
Neither the United States nor Israel will participate in an overt military attack against Iran. Fortunately, I’m right so far.
Britney Spears will “find Jesus” and make a spectacle of displaying her newfound piety. Give it time.
At least once in 2009, it will take two U.S. dollars to buy one Euro. The dollar is up to .78 Euro right now, but I’m not optimistic.
Watchmen will gross over $1 billion, including its timed-for-Christmas DVD release. Public Enemies will get tons of hype but lose money in theatrical release. Neither movie has been released yet.
UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown will survive a no-confidence vote. Not yet; I’m now doubting this.
The Detroit Lions will use their #1 overall draft pick to select Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford. The draft is in April.
General Motors will file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Not yet but I’m confident I’ll be right sooner rather than later.
The United States will abandon plans to re-invigorate its space program with supra-orbital manned missions. So far, I’m losing; NASA got $400 million in the stimulus bill for “exploration.”
Over vitriolic but ineffectual Republican opposition, Congress will pass a “carbon tax.” Not yet. Give it time.
Barack Obama will name at least one Justice to the Supreme Court of the United States. Justice Ginsburg gave us all a scare, but nothing yet.
The average U.S. price for a gallon of 87-octane unleaded gasoline in CY 2009 will be under $2.50 a gallon. So far, I’m on track.

I said I’d consider myself reasonably prescient if half the predictions came true. I think I’m doing okay so far.

Burt Likko

Pseudonymous Portlander. Homebrewer. Atheist. Recovering litigator. Recovering Republican. Recovering Catholic. Recovering divorcé. Recovering Former Editor-in-Chief of Ordinary Times. House Likko's Words: Scite Verum. Colite Iusticia. Vivere Con Gaudium.