With 8 weeks behind us, let’s re-assess the contenders and the pretenders in the NFL. The criteria are the same: I rank teams based on how I think they’d fare against one another in a 10 game home-and-home series.
- Denver: I know their next four didn’t compare as favorably to their first four, but I still take them to beat any other team on a neutral field. They’ve got the best point differential (PD), highest rating according to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), and lead in Pro Football Reference’s Simple Rating System (SRS). To me, that adds up to being the best team in the league.
- Seattle: If they played every game at home, they’d be the top team. And they’re still a good road team. But I’m not sure they’re good enough that I’d take them over Denver six times out of ten.
- New Orleans: They’re playing well in all phases of the game right now.
- San Francisco: They’ve rebounded well from some early bumps in the road. If you wanted to put them ahead of the Saints, I wouldn’t fight you for it. Those two teams are a coin-flip for me.
- Kansas City: I know, I know… they’re undefeated and have arguably the league’s best defense. But I’m not sure they can play from behind, which they may have to do in the playoffs.
- Indianapolis: They beat three of the top four teams on this list and certainly have spit in the eye of regression-to-the-mean. But the Wayne injury just kills them.
- Green Bay: Rodgers is playing like Rodgers AND they’re getting help in the running game. Look out.
- Detroit: With Megatron back at full-health, this team is never out of it. The question for them is: Can they play consistently enough for four quarters against good teams?
- Cincinnati: Is this the worst great team? Or the best good team? How much should shellacking a better-than-expected-but-possibly-still-bad Jets team count for?
- New England: Tom Brady is on pace for career worsts in just about every category. And before you blame the receiving corps, watch a game: he is missing throws all on his own.
- Carolina: Good defense can hide bad coaching/offensive play calling.
- Dallas: Talented but underachieving. Where have we heard that before?
- San Diego: Better than expected but still losing winnable games. Their division does them no favors.
- Chicago: You can’t rely on your defense to score all your points for you. Especially when that defense is boom-or-bust.
- Miami: Last time, I had them in this exact spot, with the following comment: “Are they for real? I dunno, but they are definitely much improved.” I feel it still holds.
- NY Jets: What do we make of this team? The numbers say they’re bad… perhaps even very bad. But they’re at .500 with a big win over the Patriots under their belt. Only to follow that up with their best unit getting destroyed by Cinci.
- Baltimore: Just feels like an average team. Neither great nor terrible in any phase of the game.
- Arizona: Boring.
- Tennessee: They’re on a 3 game losing streak, but all against elite teams. Hard to judge.
- Cleveland: If they had even a decent quarterback, they’d be making noise. They don’t. So they aren’t.
- Buffalo: Surprisingly competitive despite being on their 14th string QB.
- Philadelphia: They only reason they aren’t lower is because of how many bad teams we have going right now. They haven’t scored an offensive touchdown in two games. And this under the leadership of a supposed offensive genius. Mark my words: Chip Kelly is not and will not be a good NFL coach.
- Houston: How the mighty have fallen. Now the question is: Were they ever that mighty to begin with?
- Oakland: Pryor keeps it interesting, but this team is seriously talent-deprived.
- NY Giants: A mirror image of Oakland… plenty of talent, but they can’t outplay lesser competition most days. Looking better the past few weeks though…
- Washington: They haven’t put together four good quarters yet, but they’re getting closer.
- Atlanta: Injuries have ended whatever slim hopes they had of a turnaround.
- St. Louis: Last time, I asked: “Explain to me the difference between Sam Bradford and Mark Sanchez.” It seems Bradford and Sanchez’s fates are more closely aligned than we might have thought.
- Tampa Bay: Why does Schiano still have a job?
- Pittsburgh: Who cares?
- Minnesota: Not Josh Freeman, that’s who.
- Jacksonville: This is getting embarassing.
What say thee?
I disagree about Chip Kelly. He is being let down by appalling quarterback play and his last game was played largely with Matt Barkley who was horrible. There is a nice take about this over at Grantland this week.
The Giants are in there twice – presumably Tampa Bay was supposed to go in one of those spots but, what the hell, the Giants are bad enough to be at the bottom twice.
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