At last the big night is finally upon us.
Just like last year, I offered a set of predictions totally blind and without the benefit (such as it is) of having seen any of the nominated films and prior to any of the preceding predictor awards. Having now seen all of the latter (but still none of the former), I have some revisions.
Due to a family commitment, I am (quelle horreur!!) going to be missing the red carpet coverage entirely and will have to catch up with the ceremony on the DVR. Thus, I may not have a chance to live-Tweet the most hotly contested category, which is Best Supporting Actress. I called it for Jennifer Lawrence before. Since then I’ve come to agree with my friend Dan that it would actually be not so great for her career to get a second Academy Award so soon. Unlike him, I no longer think she’ll win one, but that the trophy will go to Lupita Nyong’o. Tune in tonight to see who wins our bet!
Best Supporting Actor is going to Jared Leto. I see no reason to revise my previous prediction.
Best Actress is, I think, still going to Cate Blanchett. Over at my other haunt they’ve covered pretty well why she might possibly lose, which is that suddenly it might be toxic to be associated with a Woody Allen film. (Call it the “Zero Dark Thirty” effect.) I think this would be terribly unfair, but suspect it won’t happen. They gave Adrien Brody Best Actor despite being nominated for a film directed by the less-ambiguously-criminal Roman Polanski (whose defenders I understand far less well than Allen’s), who himself won the Oscar that night. In the regrettable event of a Blanchett loss, the only consolation would be that Amy Adams would win, and I love Amy Adams.
Another major revision I’m going to make is that it seems Best Actor is going to go to Matthew McConaughey. (I guessed it would finally be DiCaprio’s year.) He’s won pretty much all the predictor awards for which he’s been nominated, and it seems that his critically-acclaimed recent work is enough for the Academy to forgive him for “How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days.” As noted in the Daily Beast link above, he’s also benefitting from HBO’s “True Detective,” a show on which he is apparently so good that even my McConaughey-skeptic best friend texted to say she’s revised her opinion.
For Best Director, I’m changing my guess to Alfonso Cuarón. He won the DGA Award, and I think the Academy is in the mood to reward him for his visionary work in a way they weren’t for James Cameron and “Avatar.” (In this regard, it really helps to be not James Cameron.) Plus, “Gravity” will probably lose to “12 Years a Slave” for Best Picture, and the Academy will want it to win at least one prestige award.
So there are my guesses. What are yours?