Matt is right about Pawlenty’s failure to distinguish himself from the pack. Also, Romney is taller and better looking than Pawlenty. You can’t underestimate how important this is to the electorate’s collective subconscious.
Taller candidates usually win. The only reason McCain beat out Romney the first time around is that…well honestly, I have no idea. Elections can be unpredictable affairs.
The only real threat to Romney at this point is Rick Perry. Alex is right to be concerned.
I think Ryan would be a hard-to-estimate X factor in the race. Will he run? My money is on no – but I think if he doesn’t then he will have to deal with his good friend Eric Cantor in 2016 and he probably doesn’t want to do that.
I doubt Ryan will enter the race. Maybe the Senate race though.