NFL Power Rankings with one week to go!
- Denver Broncos: 10 game win streak, continued gelling around Peyton Manning, and a shot at home field through the AFC playoffs.
- New England Patriots: An ugly win against a lowly Jaguars team should have them lower, but flubs by other elite teams leaves the #2 spot theirs.
- Green Bay Packers: Sure, they beat a terrible Tennessee team, but they’ve won 4 in a row and 9 of 10 and seem to be rounding into form, even if there are still question marks at running back and with their pass protection schemes.
- Seattle Seahawks: A dominating win over the 49ers shows that their recent explosion wasn’t all about weak opponents. They’ve got a shot at the division and, with it, a home playoff date, something that would be huge for them.
- San Francisco 49ers: I think they’re much closer to Seattle than last night’s game indicates, but I have them below the Seahawks for two reasons: a) I think Seattle is more likely to win in SF than SF is to win in Seattle and b) Russell Wilson is playing better (and probably simply is better) than Colin Kaepernick.
- Houston Texans: A poor showing against a worse Vikings team leaves home field in question. The defense does not seem to be what it once was and a lack of big wins (partly a function of scheduling, but still) makes me wonder about their chances advancing in the post-season.
- Atlanta Falcons: Another convincing win leaves them with the best record in the league, even if everything about them continues to scream paper tigers. I have them this low because I simply don’t think they’d beat any of the teams ahead of them, even with home field advantage.
- Washington Redskins: First, let me say that I think there is a pretty big drop off between the #7 and #8 spots on this list. It wouldn’t surprise me to see any of the above teams win the Lombardi. It would surprise me if any of the rest of the teams do. I have Washington leading the pack because nothing RG3 does should come as a surprise at this point, including a deep postseason run. The shrewd moves of this coaching staff should not go unnoticed, mind you.
- Baltimore Ravens: Will the real Baltimore Ravens please stand up? Hard to make sense of their win over the Giants given that no one can make any sense of the Giants. This team seems to lack an identity and being without their emotional leader Ray Lewis hurts.
- Chicago Bears: The best scoring defense in the league has powered them to a +95 point differential. But, ugh… Jay Cutler. Hard to put much faith in that guy.
- Minnesota Vikings: I’m not sure that they are better than the team below them, but ADP is playing at such a level that I’d be less shocked by them upsetting some of the big boys then I would Cincinnati. Peterson’s season is going to somehow render Manning’s MVP campaign to a second-place finish in the Comeback Player of the Year balloting, something that would seem unthinkable if I described the Manning narrative to you before the season.
- Cincinnati Bengals: A legit playoff team with a solid QB making strides in his second season and an elite WR in AJ Green. Defense is also solid but just not sure they do anything well enough to really make them scary come playoff time.
- Indianapolis Colts: This team is overrated. They are not as good as the other 10-win teams and not as good as most of the 9- and even 8-win teams. The power of Luck (both kinds) and #Chuckstrong seem real. But this is a team with a negative point differential that looks pretty lousy on the road (all 4 road wins against bad teams). They are one-and-done in the playoffs.
- New York Cowboys/Dallas Giants: Ugh. These two teams. They stink. A great number of their fans seem like they’d almost prefer to just have the season end even though they both have a shot at the playoffs (with Dallas controlling their own destiny!). Barring a miracle run by either team, both will likely feel like disappointing seasons even if a Division crown or playoff berth is in their future. Of course, a miracle run by either team wouldn’t be wholly shocking, adding to the general frustration that comes with even thinking about these teams.
- See above: If I had to separate them, I guess I’d put the Giants a hair ahead. Wait…. would I? Ugh… see what I mean?
- New Orleans Saints: Rebounded from a putrid start to salvage a respectable campaign. Gutsy win against Dallas gives them a shot at .500. But this team has holes that extend beyond the coaching staff absences and the bounty scandal. The defense needs to be fixed. And Drew Brees should be tested for Brett Favre syndrome.
- Pittsburgh Steelers: A down year for a team that felt like it should have been better. Defense played well despite a rash of injuries to key starters. Big Ben needs help from his O-line and running game if this team wants to return to the playoffs next year.
- St. Louis Rams: A respectable squad that seems to be making some waves behind their young QB. I’m not sure Bradford will ever be elite, but their tough play in both games against the 49ers shows this squad has some real potential.
- Miami Dolphins: Their record shows a better season than expected. The defense seemed for real. The offense? Not so much. Is Ryan Tannehill the answer? Survey says, “XXX!!!”
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: This was a hard team to figure. Not as good as they seemed on their best days, not as bad as they seemed on their worst. Where do they go from here? Questions will linger about Josh Freeman and first year coach Greg Schiano (though this particular ranker will not question his end-game strategy on kneel-downs).
- San Diego Chargers: The record indicates a team worse than the stats might suggest. Doesn’t it seem like we say that every year about this team? The problem is that the stats keep getting worse.
- Carolina Panthers: They played much better in the second half, but it was too little, too late. That is an improvement from the simply “too little” they offered earlier in the season. The problem is? IT’S STILL TOO LITTLE! I still wonder if Cam Newton is a winner or just a physical marvel who puts up numbers for a bad team that plays from behind more often than not.
- Cleveland Browns: This team has a respectable defense. And little else. Brandon Wheeden, the rookie who is older than many veterans, does not seem to be the answer at QB.
- Arizona Cardinals: Remember when they were 4-0?!?! Seems like so long ago! Well, it sorta was, I guess. The defense seem legit and Patrick Peterson is an exciting playmaker but GOOD GOD are their QBs awful.
- New York Jets: I’m tempted to put this team even lower, but they have won 6 games thus far. But what a joke. A mess on and off the field. They even managed to make Tim Tebow look like a bad guy. Sanchez has to go. However, they do get bonus points for offering us the “butt fumble” and the numerous GIFs it spawned.
- Detroit Lions: The stats seem to indicate a better team than their record. However, I’m not sure that is the case. This team has a lot of holes and I think Schwartz (rightfully) should be fired. Megatron is a truly remarkable player; let’s hope he gets teammates to match his effort and skill.
- Buffalo Bills: A few nice pieces but too many holes.
- Philadelphia Eagles: Had no better a season than the teams below them on this list, but at least their seems to be some hope for the future. It is indeed time for Andy Reid and Michael Vick to go, but they should be appreciated for what they did for this team, which was alot (particularly the former).
- Tennessee Titans: Bad. Like, really bad.
- Oakland Raiders: Even worse with no end in sight.
- Jacksonville Jaguars: God awful. Good thing it seems his son is destined to be there next year. But not even Tim Tebow will make this team respectable. Justin Blackmon does seem like a nice piece.
- Kansas City Chiefs: Terrible on the field. Tragedy off. Hard to say anything positive about this team or franchise at the moment.
For those of you who are into that sort of thing, here is how the different divisions fare when totaling their ranks:
- NFC North: 50
- NFC West: 51
- AFC North: 61
- NFC South: 65
- NFC East: 66
- AFC East: 73
- AFC South: 79
- AFC West: 84
That seems about right. If you want to give a few bonus points to the elite teams, you likely nudge the NFC West ahead of the NFC North on account of their having two teams in that upper echelon.
Want to argue? HAVE AT IT!
The baffling thing about the Houston loss to Minnesota is that Adrian Petersen only got 86 yards, and the even more baffling thing about the Seattle game was how thoroughly Frank Gore got shut down.
…Not that I’m bitter about both my running backs on my fantasy team dropping the ball for me and letting Jaybird slip past me to the finals of our fantasy football league by seven measly points because both my stud RB’s had inexplicably crappy days at the same time.
Talking to Dman last night, I made a joke about how I made it to the finals and how now I know how to play! And he pointed out how, next time, I won’t do as well.
“San Francisco 49ers: … I have them below the Seahawks for two reasons”
I would think that one of those reasons should be that the Seahawks just handed their asses to them not 24 hours ago.
It didn’t hurt, but at this point in the year, you’ve got to look at body of work over individual games. But the Seahawks win factored into my, “Seattle will always win in Seattle but SF won’t always win in SF,” rationale.
You’ve got Kansas City ranked too high…
Not that I’m bitter or anything…(insert pre-emtive “dammit, Jaybird!” here for the inevitable “how ’bout them Broncos?” comment).
The AFC West obviously has the most difficult schedule out of anybody.
Rough strength-of-schedule, based on Kazzy’s figures, (low numbers are stronger)
NFC West 198
NFC North 205
NFC East 225
AFC South 235
AFC East 239
AFC North 240
NFC South 247
AFC West 262
Kazzy, nice piece of research and pretty agree with all you said. I especially like the line about Brees getting checked for Favre syndrome. Did you ever wonder how much better Brees would be if, instead of making 20 million a year, he made 10 and used the extra money to hire better offensive and defensve linemen?
I don’t think you’re giving proper weight to division games.
Over half of the Rams’ wins were against division opponents, while almost half of all the Lions’ losses were within the division.
And the NFC is a tougher conference. All the NFC teams should get bumped up one notch just for being in the NFC.
It does get difficult with the unbalanced division schedules. I often find power rankings are done better via tiers… “These four teams are of roughly equal caliber and are a notch above this group of five teams, etc.” But that is not as much fun for arguments.