I don’t recall there being any Ravens fans around here, but there are certainly Packers, Broncos, and 49ers fan in some abundance, with only the last having a reason to be pleased. A few observations on the day’s events:
- I hate to label anyone a choker, because generalizing from a small sample and singling out a scapegoat are the hallmarks of the unreflective fan (or, worse still, the average sports talk host). Still, it does seem like Peyton has a hard time winning playoff games, and his second interception killed them.
- Kaepernick’s interception was a terrible play, and the unsportsmanlike conduct call was just plain dumb. Other than that, he was brilliant.
- Five yards for mugging a receiver, but fifteen for spiking the ball after the play is over?
- Nothing slows down a football game like “instant” replay, and most of them result in “the ruling stands” (i.e. we couldn’t tell) rather than its being confirmed or overturned.
- Huey Lewis and the News should sing the national anthem at every game.
- I still laugh when the little girl tells Aaron Rodgers “That’s not a real job”.
- “Copernicus” is the Latin form: his real name was “Kopernik”. I have no idea whether they’re related.
Other thoughts?
I’m guessing Peyton would have known enough to not let any ratbird receivers get behind the secondary with under a minute and 70 yards for a td. I’m also guessing there were some unkind words directed at the safety and cb who screwed the pooch at the end of regulation.
Ugh. Well, that happened.
My sentiments exactly.
Yes, they gave up 35 points, but considering they played 5 full quarters, 2 TDs were on special teams (which was Baltimore’s best segment all year), and the Broncos scored a lone offensive touchdown over the final 45+ minutes of the game, Baltimore might prove a much tougher out than they appeared to be over the last 1/3 of the season. Plus Baltimore always seems to give New England fits (and, yes, I’m assuming New England wins).
A knock on Denver all year was that they never beat anyone good. They beat Pitt early, but Pitt turned out to not be anything special. They then lost to Houston, Atlanta, and NE, the three best teams they played. Their best wins were probably over Cincinnati and a struggling Ravens team. Everyone wanted to say they simply took the first few weeks to gel and for Manning to get his arm strength back but, um, Manning still doesn’t appear to have much arm strength. So, yea, they were probably a bit of a paper tiger. They wouldn’t have been a pushover for NE playing at home, but Brady is clearly better able to handle the cold weather, especially with Peyton still dealing with cold-weather induced nerve damage in his throwing hand (!!!).
Kaepernick (who I still want to call Kaepnerickus) looked great and, more importantly, fearless. Kid has balls. Which is what you need in the playoffs. He doesn’t seem to struggle with first-year jitters or anything of the sorts. And, Jesus, is it me, or does it seem like he finds running lanes of gargantuan proportions? Maybe he’s just really smart about when to run and only runs when the defense parts like the Red Sea, but he simply sees a whole, hits it hard, and out runs everyone. It’s not a Culpepper/Roethlisberger power run or a Vick/Cunningham elusive, shifty run. It’s simply see hole, run through hole, end up in end zone 50 yards later untouched. Wow.
I have the Hawks over the Falcons today and the Pats winning, setting up Pats/Ravens and 49ers/Seahawks. Both home teams will and should be favored, but I’d peg both of those matchups reasonably close to coin-flips. NE will have an edge in that the Ravens played an extra quarter of what was already a grinding game.
But, yea, we saw some pretty fantastic football yesterday.
it’s probably a combo of having good vision, the offensive line giving gaping holes, and that Kaepernick being wicked fast – he looked even faster last night than (healthy) RG3 or Russell Wilson.
And you know, all three of them do that pistol option thing that can bedevil defenses – Clay Matthews literallyjoebiden got himself turned around on that one play right in front of him. Though I wonder how long that can last – any unorthodox scheme works in the short term, but defenses most of the time are able to eventually adjust for it and shut it down (see also Tebow).
Kaepernick has that sort of deceitful speed, because he’s tall and has a long gait. He doesn’t seem to fly the way Vick did (though I think Vick in his prime was faster than any QB we’ve seen, RG3 included, when he got into the open field), but he takes about 8 steps and is 40 yards downfield.
I think part of the reason “unorthodox” schemes only work short term is because of a lack of ability or willingness to adapt. The unorthodox scheme works, the defense adapts, it stops working, and is abandoned. A great coach could continue to adapt it, still working within the overall scheme but making the necessary changes to continue the cat-and-mouse game with the defense. That is what separates a true scheme from a gimmick. I mean, many current schemes were unorthodox when first introduced… the West Coast, the spread, hell… passing the pall was once unorthodox. But if you have coaches smart enough and an organization willing to work through ups-and-downs, I think you can see it become more established and work long-term.
Harbaugh and the 49ers might be positioned to do that. Harbaugh is smart as a whip, especially with the QB position, and he has seem to really engendered himself to the organization in a way that other, recent flash-in-the-pan coaches haven’t. Time will tell, plus I don’t know that we can say for sure that Kaepernick is the right guy for the job. That’s another problem: a new style can break down for a host of reasons unrelated to the style itself, but the failure will be ascribed to the style regardless.
How much do you think NFL coaches are mostly adapting to the fact that QBs like Wilson, RG III and Kaepernick are the ones being trained in college more often than the classic pro style (Andrew Luck)?
For example, I am pretty sure that at least half the reason for the general switch to the 3-4 defense had to be that the prototype defensive end needed by a 4-3 is just too rare a bird. You can’t teach size but you can find lots of guys a just little smaller and train them to be outside linebackers.
Same goes for the QBs coming out of option offenses in college. It has been a hit or miss proposition lately that they can make the switch to classic pocket passing (see Cordell Stewart, even Alex Smith), but it turns out that you CAN create a pro offense that that allows you to scout college QBs with some confidence you’ll get it right.
4-3 Defensive Ends and option QBs have been some of the most spectacular busts of the first round going on a couple decades now. I think the lesson for the teams that adapted was to make a system to fit the talent available.
“How much do you think NFL coaches are mostly adapting to the fact that QBs like Wilson, RG III and Kaepernick are the ones being trained in college more often than the classic pro style (Andrew Luck)?”
I think there is a lot of institutional inertia against making such adaptations, for a host of reasons. But I think the best organizations will be, as has always been the case, the ones that can adapt.
When people wring their hands and fret about how, “There aren’t 32 QBs in the country worth starting in the NFL,” my eyes just glaze over. There are more than enough QBs in the country who can lead successful offenses. There aren’t 32 Peyton Mannings or Tom Bradys or Aaron Rodgerseseses, but there never will be. The problem is that most teams are trying to either A) fit square pegs into round holes or B) use shitty round pegs because they think the hole has to be round. It’s not the best example, because I think Tebow has a lot of limitations regardless of style, but I think the Jets would have been better with Tebow at QB than Sanchez provided they crafted an offense around him. Tebow is better at doing Tebow things than Sanchez is at doing traditional-QB things. The problem is that building an offense around Tebow takes time. You need to get the right players, the right coaches, and institute the right scheme. Most coaches/GMs don’t have a long enough leash to do that.
Why do you think Belichek is so innovative in NE? It’s not JUST that he’s really smart, but also that he can take risks others can’t because they’re not going to fire him.
There’s a reason to avoid run-oriented QBs in the pros: they get hurt, badly. See both Vick and RG III. Tebow is a big, strong guy, but if he’d started a full season as an option QB, I think the same would have happened to him.
Many colleges keep running QBs healthy over multiple seasons. Granted, they are not getting hit by guys with the size and speed of what we see in the NFL, but the injury problems that Vick in particular faced was when he was asked to be a pocket passer and took hits in positions where he couldn’t properly brace himself. If a team TRULY committed to the idea, they’d structure their offfensive blocking schemes, their playcaling, hell, the goddamn pads the QB wears, around the idea of him taking hits.
It’d be hard, no doubt, but not impossible. Running backs routinely take 500+ hits a season.
“Granted, they are not getting hit by guys with the size and speed of what we see in the NFL,” is exactly comparing the college game and pro game is apples and oranges. The talent level is too divergent. Plus a college career as a starter typically lasts only 2-3 years (and about 4 fewer games each year), a pro with that longevity would be a complete failure.
“It’d be hard, no doubt, but not impossible. Running backs routinely take 500+ hits a season.”
Most running backs tend to be built differently – they’re generally much shorter for one. And they get injured regularly enough http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/2012/runningback-central.cfm (see also Adrian Petterson)
(that same link indicates that RB performance drops off considerably after age 29 – without going to actual stats or anything, it seems to me that top tier QB reach their peak between 29-32 as their experience and team built around them finally gel into a winning combination)
But you’re still thinking in the traditional mold of a QB!
Why couldn’t your QB be built like an RB and be replaced in his late 20’s? Hell, I’d love to see a team go with a two-QB system, rotating series depending on game situation, forcing the defense to prepare for two completely different styles. Again, hard, but not impossible.
The problem is we refuse to think TRULY radically. Your complaints assume that everything else remains equal which, if they do, certainly do point to real problems with such a shift in QBing. But if you are willing to rethink EVERYTHING, who knows what’s possible?
And, to be quite blunt, repeated head trauma is going to affect QB play before it affects RB play. An option QB doesn’t have to be less alert , observant, or quick-thinking than a pocket QB does, and there are already few enough people who can master the position when played at NFL speed.
No matter what scheme one comes up with, it’s going to have to deal with at least two hard limits – a 50 someodd man roster limit, and seven people on the line. (and having to announce your eligibility if you’re a certain number)
The running back’s advantage is that he’s running forward as he gets the ball, giving him momentum. He also has just one job, and can focus on that (and protecting himself and the ball) The disadvantage is that once he has the ball, he’s going to keep the ball and is the defense’s sole target.
The quarterback’s advantage is that he can do anything, hand it off to someone, pass it to someone, or run it himself. The disadvantage with him running it himself is that he is generally moving backwards or sideways when he takes off. The other disadvantage is to maintain the options available to him, he’s not going to be able to protect the football or himself as well as a running back does.
I don’t think trading these things up is that easy, or even wise.
“Why couldn’t your QB be built like an RB and be replaced in his late 20′s?”
And on a psychological level, everyone plays like they’re invincible and will live forever – and certainly no one (in their 20’s) signs a free agent contract with anything else in mind.
and what the Joke Giant from San Francisco said.
The current active-roster limit is one of the things that makes me completely disregard any claim the League makes about wanting to improve player safety. The Eagles were one more injury away from having to insert a TE into an interior line position (or otherwise shifting the entire line out of position) because they suffered so many injuries in a game and had no backups left. That is a recipe for getting someone seriously hurt. Expand the active rosters. Seriously.
Expand the active rosters.
Don’t talk crazy. That would cost actual money.
Heh. That’s the NFL’s stance in a nutshell, isn’t it?
“Player safety is of the utmost important. UNLESS it costs us money. Then… fuck it.”
Grantland, inspired by the upcoming Lance Armstrong interview, imagined some more celebrity (non-)apologies. Here’s Roger Goodell:
Because we knew. Sure we did. We knew all along. I mean, it’s not rocket science. You drive a truck full-on into someone’s head, their wires are gonna get crossed, and the only real difference between Joey Porter and a truck is that a truck won’t insult your mom while you’re lying there trying to get your breath back. Of course we knew. We made a pros-and-cons list. The ‘cons’ side read, ‘Damaging the brains of potentially thousands of young men.’ The ‘pros’ side was just a list of Pacific Islands we could buy with our annual revenue. Some of them had such beautiful names, Oprah. Olapu. Say it to yourself. O-la-pu. Two billion, maybe two-two. It’s magical.
Great conversation. Just a couple quick thoughts regarding running QBs and injuries.
I think it would definitely be fair to assume that career of an option running QB would be somewhat shorter than that of a traditional pocket passer. I think you are able to get the running type QB into the starting lineup sooner, though. You are leveraging the skills and the offense they already know rather than trying to train a whole new one to them. Wilson and RGII are doing it as rookies, Kaepernick is a second year player. Maybe you end up front loading your ROI on these guys to some extent?
The value of being able to drop a rookie QB into a familiar system makes a lot of sense. Luck ran a pro style offense at Stanford and didn’t miss a beat in Indy. At the same time, 2 teams with former college coaches were able to reach further into the draft for Wilson and Kaepernick and design offenses that made these guy’s skills shine. When you have a scouting report on a QB that is relevant rather than speculative, good things happen.
Finally, its not just abot the QB. Note that 2 of the option QBs that are doing well have a few things in common: Both are playing under very recent college coaches that are familiar with this type of offense. And most important: Both the 49ers and Seahawks spent multiple first round draft choices in the last couple years on pro bowl quality OFFENSIVE LINEMEN.
RGIII is killing it under a coach who is famous for innovative O Line play and getting the most out of running backs. The same was not true for Michael Vick. Meanwhile, Wilson and Kaepernick are thriving and not getting injured because both teams have top notch offensive lines designed for a run first game plan.
If they win today, I think the Seahawks will find the same problem with this (brand new) version of the 49ers offense that they had in the first quarter against Washington. If they play zone, so that the pass defenders don’t have their backs to the QB when he takes off to run, they have to give up some blitz packages and will have some space between defenders and receivers. Kaepernick, like RG III, will have an easier passing game being offered up. Seattle went to man defense last week only when they realized RG III was more or less crippled and there was no real run threat – they just had to defend the run against the RB. Their front 7 could handle that in man to man coverage and have a blitzer or 2 to spare.
Mind you, you could take that exact same analysis and flip it for Wilson.
At least Tebow won a playoffs game before being eliminated.
I wondered what was keeping you.
Sorry. I had to google the game.
I couldn’t agree more about the instant replay. It drags on forever, most rulings are confirmed and it sucks all the momentum out of a drive. Where before I found it tolerable if sort of geeky (like arguing about comic book character arcana or something) at this point, I loathe it. Considering that about half of the biggest “plays” are made by the refs calling more and more subjective penalties, it seems crazy that penalties are the one thing that can never be reviewed.
The rules and penalties are multiplying like the worst sort of government agency – I mean, could you ever explain what is happening on the field in a modern pro football game to a non-native?
BUT, what an amazing 9 quarters of football! The Ravens showed a lot of grit in a game nobody thought they’d win. Living in the Bay Area, there is one thing we have learned to keep in mind: no team that plays 6 games a year against the AFC West can be taken too seriously as a top seed. They haven’t been tested. See also: Notre Dame.
NFL should move to a college-type system where all replays are booth-initiated. But instead of having an on-field official going under the hood, there is a booth official who makes the final call. He gets to view a handful of angles, a maximum of two times each, and in regular speed. If he can’t see anything worth overturning, then the call stands.
It shouldn’t take 4 minutes looking at hyper-slow, ultra-magnified film to see what’s right. If it takes that much, just stick with the call!
yep. And they should go to the same yardage penalty for pass interference college ball uses, too. The biggest play of the game should never be made by a ref.
It’s tricky, because you risk incentivizing PI if a big play is imminent. Of course, most penalties do that (e.g., taking a hold to avoid your QB getting sacked/maimed/fumbling). I wouldn’t really object to that rule change, though also don’t feel strongly enough to push for it.
They also need to make offensive and defensive PI calls more equitable. So many rules already favor the offense. You can’t call defenders for PI every time they look at a WR and only call WR if they piledrive the guy.
On Alternate Earth, where Peyton signs with the 49ers and then gets hurt during the first Rams game, I don’t think even Harbaugh has the balls to keep starting Kaepernick once Peyton is healthy again.
Do we know that Peyton didn’t get a look at a couple workouts, saw this complete freak running & throwing on the second team, saw all of that play out in the still-possible actual world, and said, I’m outta here?