If I were going to handicap the Oscars, there are three awards I would be pretty confident in — Heath Ledger for Best Supporting Actor, Danny Boyle for Best Director, and Slumdog Millionaire for Best Picture. I wouldn’t have a clue who to pick for Best Actor or Best Actress, or Best Supporting Actress. Even those guesses would be conditional, seeing as despite how much I love the movies. I’ve not seen very many of the movies that have the major nominations.
Of the various movies in question, here’s my track record this year.
| Movie | Status |
|---|---|
| Changeling | Haven’t seen it but want to |
| The Curious Case of Benjamin Button | Looked like a rental |
| The Dark Knight | Saw it, really liked it |
| Doubt | Not interested |
| Frost/Nixon | Haven’t seen it but want to |
| Frozen River | Not interested |
| Milk | Moderately interested |
| Rachel Getting Married | Not on your life |
| The Reader | Not interested |
| Revolutionary Road | Yawn |
| Slumdog Millionaire | Saw it, loved it |
| Tropic Thunder | Looked like a rental; this really got a nomination? |
| Vicky Christina Barcelona | Looked like a rental |
| The Visitor | Saw part of it on a plane, liked it |
| The Wrestler | Looked like a rental |
Abyssmal, I know. Two and a half of the fifteen movies deemed most worthy of notice this year by People Who Really Care About Such Things. But there you have it; I’ve actually not been out to the movies all that much this past year.
Fortunately, one of the guys who was behind FiveThirtyEight.com has turned his statistician’s eye to the Oscars and he agrees with all three of my predictions. He’s also handicapping Kate Winslet for Best Actress for her role in The Reader, Mickey Rourke for his role in The Wrestler, and Taraji P. Henson for her role in The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button.
I guess Mickey Rourke is a logical choice. But it’s sort of a shame to see Richard Jenkins get such short shrift. The Visitor was a perfectly charming film, and Jenkins is a cool actor. I really liked him playing the Late Nate on Six Feet Under and he brings this empathetic quirkiness to everything he does. But I’ve not seen Mickey Rourke’s performance in The Wrestler, and maybe he was just really, really good. The preview sure made it look like it was specially-written for Oscar appeal.
i do not undestand you Americans and your COMPLETE STUPIDITYlookthe guy who wrote this says he didn;t see the reader.that says it all right thereTHE READER IS BY 50 BILION TIMES FAR FAR AND AWAY A BETTER MOVIE THAN SLUMDOGG IS, IT AINLT EVEN CLOSETHE READER BLOWS IT OUT OF THE WATERYET I AGREEBECAUSE AMERICANS ARE UNENDINGLY STUPID, LIKE THIS GUY WHO SAYS HE ISNL;T INTERESTED IN SEEING THAT FILM BUT HERE HE IS PICKING WHICH MOVIE DESERVES TO WIN BEST PICTURETHE SAD FACT IS SLUMDOGG DOESNOT DESERBVE THAT AWARD AND IT’S DIRECTOPR DID HALF THE JOB THE DIRECTOR OF THE READER DID…PERIOD !!!TO HAVE SEEN BOTH MOVIES AND TO PICK SLUMDOGG YOU WOULD HAVE TO BE A RETARDTHIS GUY DIDN’T EVEN SEE THE READER AND IS CALLING SLUMDOGG BEST PICTURE!!!THE SAD FACT IS THE ACADEMY IS GOING TO MAKE SLUMDOGG THE WINNER AND THERE IS NO WAY IT DESERVES THAT AWARD BEFORE THE READER…IT AIN’T ANYWHERE NEAR AS GOOD A MOVIE !!!
Spartacus, I appreciate your sentiment. Your tone, however, could use some improvement.I also suggest leaving your CAPS LOCK key off.
I liked Defiance, and am surprised that there seemed to be no mention for that film. Spartacus, you need to learn to be more self – controlled in your speech. Whether you agree or disagree with the choices of others should not permit you to be so offensive.”There is hunger for ordinary bread, and there is hunger for love, for kindness, for thoughtfulness, and this is the great poverty that makes people suffer so much.” – Mother Teresa”Kindness is more important than wisdom, and the recognition of this is the beginning of wisdom.” – Theodore Rubin”You cannot do a kindness too soon, for you never know how soon it will be too late.” – Ralph Waldo Emerson
Thanks, Pamela. A good reminder.I’ll point out that I never said that Slumdog was a better movie than The Reader. What I said is that it was more likely to win the Best Picture award.