Here are the probabilities, based on past performance. Our shot sheet has twenty entries, to split between four players.
| Patriots win coin toss | 50% |
| Giants win coin toss | 50% |
| Brady-Gronkowski TD pass | 111% |
| Brady-Welker TD pass | 56% |
| Brady-Ochocinco TD pass | 6% |
| Brady-Hernandez TD pass | 50% |
| Green-Ellis TD | 67% |
| Brady rushing TD | 22% |
| Gostkowski misses FG or XP | 5% |
| Patriots turnover | 128% |
| Manning-Cruz TD pass | 47% |
| Manning-Nicks TD pass | 61% |
| Manning-Manningham TD pass | 46% |
| Bradshaw TD | 60% |
| Jacobs TD | 47% |
| Manning rushing TD | 5% |
| Tynes misses FG or XP | 8% |
| Giants turnover | 163% |
| Madonna uses profanity in halftime show | fair to good |
| Madonna “suffers wardrobe malfunction” in halftime show | very unlikely |
All percentages calculated based on the number of times the events in question have happened when the players in question took the field during the regular season and the playoffs. SWAG as to the halftime show.
Using these probabilities, you can apportion event slates so everyone playing at your party has a roughly equal chance of having to do a shot during the game.
And yes, it’s a relief to be able to consider such frivolities today. Have fun, everyone!
For my shot today I was thinking of some gin and scotch, personally.
“Bradshaw TD 60%”
This one was precisely correct.
L’Chaim!