The Ninth Circuit will issue its panel decision in the same sex marriage case tomorrow. It will, of course, be appealed almost immediately. But we’ll have fodder for discussion for quite some time thereafter.
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The Ninth Circuit will issue its panel decision in the same sex marriage case tomorrow. It will, of course, be appealed almost immediately. But we’ll have fodder for discussion for quite some time thereafter.
Comments are closed.
Prediction?
C’mon, you know you wanna.
There should be no presumption that tomorrow’s ruling will be appealed to the SCOTUS. If the appeals court rules that Prop 8 resulted in an unconstitutional infringement on equal treatment and due process, the anti-gays would hardly risk going to the US Supreme Court and have them agree, and impose same-sex marriage on all 50 states. What SCOTUS-caliber lawyer would want to trash his or her reputation by losing at SCOTUS and spreading same-sex marriage to all 50 states???
Nearly every lawyer of better-than-average abilities fancies herself possessed of sufficient intellectual caliber to stand before SCOTUS and convince the swing vote to see things her way.
If the appeals court rules that Prop 8 resulted in an unconstitutional infringement on equal treatment and due process, the anti-gays would hardly risk going to the US Supreme Court and have them agree, and impose same-sex marriage on all 50 states
You’re assuming the Prop 8 supporters are rational. People driven by moralistic fervor often aren’t.
What SCOTUS-caliber lawyer would want to trash his or her reputation by losing at SCOTUS and spreading same-sex marriage to all
50 states???
If they can’t find a SCOTUS-caliber lawyer willing to take the job, they’ll readily find a non-SCOTIS-caliber lawyer, thus enhancing their chances of losing.
There’s a feedback loop in there, too. The worse the lawyer is, the more likely they are to overestimate their own competency.