I plugged in some SWAGs to the CNN delegate calculator. I assumed that the Gingrich campaign would eventually run out of steam by the end of March, that Ron Paul would continue on to the end doing about what he’s been doing, and Santorum would appeal to the grassroots and Tea Partiers, and Romney would do well in most other places and especially strong in the Mountain West (lots of Mormons) and in outlying areas (lots of money and organization).
I wound up with: Romney 1109, Santorum 959, Paul 230, and Gingrich 184. That’s a brokered convention, with Gingrich and Paul holding the cards. Which got me sort of excited, until I realized that I’d apportioned more delegates than actually exist. One would think if this happened that the behind-the-scenes pols would jigger around with the rules so that the convention was locked up before it started, inspiring outrage from the supporters of whoever it was that got locked out (likely Santorum, if it’s the establishment folks pulling the strings).