We can’t expect any more polling numbers on Prop. 8 until the only poll that really counts — the election – takes place on Tuesday. So here you go. Today’s Field Poll is showing Prop. 8 trailing by a margin of 44% to 49% with 7% undecided. The margin of error is 3.3% within the 95% confidence range and an absolute margin of error beyond that of 4.6%.
Over sixty million dollars have been spent on this initiative. I’ve never heard of an initiative campaign, anywhere, that has attracted this much attention, this much money, and this much activity. A tremendous amount of the resources for the “Yes on 8” campaign have come from religious sources. In a very real sense, Proposition 8 is a measure of the political strength of religious groups to effect their will on the rest of us.
The “Yes on 8” campaign has tried to spread what I have called a pack of lies and deceit, intended to gloss over the fundamental prejudice against gay people upon which the initiative is based. It has done all that it can to provide elaborate rationalizations so that its supporters — who are probably otherwise fundamentally decent and good people — can convince themselves that they are acting from a position of moral correctness. It is not true (ultimately, the only argument against gay people getting married is “Ewww”) but I will grant that many people have convinced themselves that it is nevertheless right.
The result is that it is simply too close to call. The Presidential race is a foregone conclusion now; everyone who is not professionally obligated to say otherwise (either because they are Republican partisans or because, like sports announcers broadcasting a one-sided rout, they are contractually obligated to try and keep viewers interested) knows full well that Obama will win. But this one will be a nail-biter.