ASTN Fantasy Projections On The Only Player Who Matters

[Intro Music.]

HOST:  Welcome back to the All Sports Talk Network, for this week’s Fantasy Bulletin. Today, we’re talking Favre. Which is kind of like the last eighteen hours of our programming yesterday, only we’ve got some actual statistics generated in preseason play to run through our sophisticated forecast analysis computer models.  Paulina the Projector, take it away!

PAULINA:  Okay, thanks, Leonard! Folks, with no sign of antihistamine side-effects or slowness bothering Brett Favre in the four plays he participated in during this weekend’s preseason game against San Francisco, sports fans everywhere are looking for clues about his upcoming performance. Favre, who was in on four plays, threw 1-1, for 13 yards and no touchdowns, had no interceptions, and was sacked once for a loss of ten yards.  ASTN has a statistical projection available run by our own Eddie the Egghead, and the result is surprisingly mixed.  Isn’t that right, Eddie?

EDDIE:  That’s right, Paula.  I ran ASTN’s exclusive “straight projection” technique on Favre and the results are mixed.  On the one hand, we project his performance to be on pace for a record year in the regular season. Barring an injury, Favre will have a stunning and career-high quarterback rating of 118.75, which will be the second-best in NFL history. Brett will finally lick his career-long tendency to interceptions; ASTN projects based on his performance against the Niners that Favre will throw no INT’s this year. That’s right – zero. You heard it here on ASTN first.

PAULINA:  So I’m going to want to use my #1 overall pick to get Favre!

EDDIE:  Not so fast, Paula-Paula.  Maybe you girls are in a scoring league. If you are, I’d say look elsewhere.

HOST:  Whoa! Favre is a touchdown machine, Eddie!

EDDIE:  No, it’s true. Favre threw no touchdowns at all despite having had four opportunities to do so. Based on how he played this weekend, we think that Favre will come in last place for touchdowns scored in the season among starting QBs. And, if you do draft him, beware of injuries! I know Favre has never missed a start yet in his twenty-year career, but based on what happened Sunday, Minnesota’s offensive line will allow Brett to be sacked on roughly 25% of the plays, for an average of ten yards lost per sack. For some leagues, this could be devastating, and for everyone, this is a huge risk. Overall, I’m suggesting he’s a fourth- or fifth-round pick in most leagues.

PAULINA: Huh! Interesting. So if you do draft Favre, you might want to handcuff him to Tarvaris Jackson, who we project will be available in the late rounds of your draft; could be a good value pickup. Got it, listeners? So, if I were in a scoring league, I’d be looking harder at Adrian Peterson than Favre based on what you’re telling me, Edward.

EDDIE: That’s probably a good way to go. We’re projecting that 100% of Favre’s passes will be to Peterson, based on the fact that 100% of Favre’s passes were to him yesterday. Hey, when a guy’s got the hot hands, what else are you going to do? Pick up some cheap points from the TD’s, that’s what.

PAULINA: But see, Eddie, I’m not in a scoring league. Touchdowns only count in the real game. What we care about in fantasy sports is yardage, right?  Boo-ya!  [EDDIE and PAULINA high five, turn to HOST.]

HOST:  [Coldly] That’s my thing, Paulina, are you stealing it from me like you stole Trevor? [Awkward pause. HOST turns to camera, speaks brightly.] Coming up, we’ve got more insider tips from ASTN’s crack fantasy projection squad, including this week’s Tough Call, brought to you by Stinkpretty Cologne for Men. Today’s Tough Call: Defense–Browns or Lions? Stay tuned! [To PAULINA, sotto voce:]  Homewrecker.

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Burt Likko

Pseudonymous Portlander. Homebrewer. Atheist. Recovering litigator. Recovering Republican. Recovering Catholic. Recovering divorcé. Recovering Former Editor-in-Chief of Ordinary Times. House Likko's Words: Scite Verum. Colite Iusticia. Vivere Con Gaudium.