Big Monday

Monday, June 25, a week from today, is expected to be the Big Opinion Drop at the United States Supreme Court. The tea leaf readers are predicting a 5-4 decision, with Anthony Kennedy providing the decisive vote, striking down at least part of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act in the case of State of Florida v. United States Department of Health and Human Services. Florida v. HHS is only the most prominent of several companion cases challenging “ObamaCare.” Also watch out for Arizona v. United States, the challenge to Arizona’s HB 1040. I’d look for that decision to come down on Monday also. And maybe a few others of interest.

I will be in trial all day June 25 and likely again all day on June 26. Which is a bummer of a situation for a Supreme Court watcher like me to be on the biggest day of the Court’s year. So I may not have time to get to much analysis until later next week. I’m sure, though, that there will be the appropriate OMG-the-sky-is-falling rhetoric on the one side and rejoice-the-Republic-is-saved rhetoric on the other. As for sober analysis, well, y’all are just going to have to wait until the trial courts here in California give me some time to read and think. Or you could always, you know, read and think before evaluating on your own in the interim. Just a suggestion.

Burt Likko

Pseudonymous Portlander. Homebrewer. Atheist. Recovering litigator. Recovering Republican. Recovering Catholic. Recovering divorcé. Recovering Former Editor-in-Chief of Ordinary Times. House Likko's Words: Scite Verum. Colite Iusticia. Vivere Con Gaudium.


  1. My suspicion is that it’ll be like Citizens United insofar that there will be 7 different opinions and the Majority for part I will be 5-4, there will be concurrence/dissent for part II and it’ll be 8-1 for part III and 2-7 for part IV, and part V will be unanimous…

    but everybody will look at the 5-4 for part 1 and scream about partisanship.

    • Is there any doubt in your mind who the 5 will be and who the 4 will be? Or that the numbers would be different if it was a horsetrade for privatized Social Security called WCare?

      None in mine.

    • I suspect people will scream about the 5-4 part because it’ll be for the most contentious issue. It seems there’s little doubt that the medicaid part will stand. However, we’ll see…

  2. I was under the impression they’re expected to announce it on Thursday (the 28th).

  3. I hope I’ll have the good grace to accept the decision when, as seems likely, the Court strikes down the law (which I support).

    • Nobody’s gonna try and take Souter’s house away this time.

      more’s the pity, the world’s gotten too busy for lulz.

Comments are closed.