At the end of December, I made sixteen predictions for 2009. Here’s how I’m doing so far:
| Prediction | Status |
|---|---|
| The United States Federal deficit for calendar year 2009 will exceed $1.5 trillion. | I may have been too modest in this prediction. |
| A human being will be cloned. | Not that I know of yet. |
| There will be serious attempts at coups in two of the following: Morocco, Boliva, Colombia, Ethiopia, or Pakistan. | Fortunately, I’m wrong so far on all of these. |
| GDP for the United States will decline for at least three of the four quarters in CY 2009. | On track. Not that I’m happy about being right. |
| California will endure a shutdown of all non-essential state government functions, and then increase state taxes. | Half right. Taxes increased substantially, but a shutdown of the state government was averted at the last minute. |
| Neither the United States nor Israel will participate in an overt military attack against Iran. | Fortunately, I’m right so far. |
| Britney Spears will “find Jesus” and make a spectacle of displaying her newfound piety. | Give it time. |
| At least once in 2009, it will take two U.S. dollars to buy one Euro. | The dollar is up to .78 Euro right now, but I’m not optimistic. |
| Watchmen will gross over $1 billion, including its timed-for-Christmas DVD release. Public Enemies will get tons of hype but lose money in theatrical release. | Neither movie has been released yet. |
| UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown will survive a no-confidence vote. | Not yet; I’m now doubting this. |
| The Detroit Lions will use their #1 overall draft pick to select Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford. | The draft is in April. |
| General Motors will file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. | Not yet but I’m confident I’ll be right sooner rather than later. |
| The United States will abandon plans to re-invigorate its space program with supra-orbital manned missions. | So far, I’m losing; NASA got $400 million in the stimulus bill for “exploration.” |
| Over vitriolic but ineffectual Republican opposition, Congress will pass a “carbon tax.” | Not yet. Give it time. |
| Barack Obama will name at least one Justice to the Supreme Court of the United States. | Justice Ginsburg gave us all a scare, but nothing yet. |
| The average U.S. price for a gallon of 87-octane unleaded gasoline in CY 2009 will be under $2.50 a gallon. | So far, I’m on track. |
I said I’d consider myself reasonably prescient if half the predictions came true. I think I’m doing okay so far.
